We’ve got some nice matchups this weekend in the Premier League, and there are some fun bets we can make as well.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
EPL Betting: Matchweek 24
Brentford at Wolves (10 a.m. ET Saturday)
Both Wolves and Brentford haven’t had much attention paid to them this season. Neither are in the race for a European place, nor have they been in the relegation conversation. That is, until Brentford’s recent run of poor form has resulted in them currently being only three points above the drop zone.
Wolves are coming off a great win on the road against Chelsea by a 4-2 score. This Wolves side doesn’t struggle to score like last year’s Wolves team did. Their 37 goals this season are already more than the 31 they scored in 2022-23.
Brentford got Ivan Toney back from his lengthy suspension, but it hasn’t helped their recent form. They’ve won just two of their last 13 games. Three of those games came against Wolves, including a 4-1 game at home in the league on December 27th.
The absences of Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, and Rico Henry — among others — have really hurt Brentford. Meanwhile, Wolves are at full strength as they are getting Hwang Hee-Chan back from the Asian Cup.
The expected goal (xG) numbers look like Brentford have the advantage. The Bees’ xG differential is actually +5.0, compared to -7.2 for Wolves, per FBRef. However, recently, they are trending in opposite directions. Wolves have lost the xG battle just once across their last five matches while Brentford have won it only twice in their last 12 league games.
It feels unlikely that Brentford will be able to get back on track against a Wolves side that’s in good form. Since we’re getting better than even money on Wolves, I like backing them in this game.
Manchester United at Aston Villa (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)
A match that could be critical for the Champions League places next season will take place on Sunday at Villa Park. The location of the match is a key angle to handicapping this game. Aston Villa have been excellent at home while Manchester United have struggled away.
In home games, only Liverpool have picked up more points per match than Villa this season. Villa have a better xG differential per 90 minutes in games at Villa Park than Manchester City do for matches at the Etihad.
On the flip side, Manchester United are seventh in points per match away from home this season. They have five road wins — all against teams 10th or lower in the table. Their xG differential away from home is -4.4.
Man United have played better of late, but they suffered a huge loss to their defense when Lisandro Martinez was injured again. They had gone unbeaten in the four matches since he returned, and they now will have to play Harry Maguire in his stead.
Villa aren’t quite playing as well at home as they were when they beat Man City and Arsenal in the same week in early December. However, they likely don’t need to be at the top of their game against Manchester United.
All of the numbers suggest Villa is the better team, so getting them to win at +120 is pretty appealing.
Elijah Adebayo to Score (+175): Most people probably wouldn’t have expected Luton Town to score four goals in consecutive league matches at any point this season. They’ve done just that in their last two games — against two teams in the top half of the league.
This week, they will face a Sheffield United team that just allowed five goals at home last game. The Blades have also allowed the most goals and expected goals in the league.
Elijah Adebayo has four goals in his last two matches. If he played for another team, his odds would likely be shorter than this. Getting +175 for an in-form striker against the league’s worst defense feels like a really nice deal.
Dominic Solanke to Score (+175): Solanke isn’t as hot as he was earlier in the season, but I still like his odds of scoring in this game.
His Bournemouth side will face Fulham, the team that’s conceded the fourth-most xG in the league. Solanke also scored in the last meeting between these two clubs back on Boxing Day.
Solanke is third in the Premier League in goals. Against a weak defensive team, his +175 any time goal odds is something that should pique our interest.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.