Matchweek 24 in the Premier League is highlighted by a handful of matches between Table neighbors. The Red Devils look to continue their ascent at the expense of the struggling Villains. Arsenal and City have an opportunity to climb to the top of the Table if Liverpool stumbles at Anfield. At the other end, Luton can put some space, not much, but some space between themselves and the Relegation Zone when they host Sheffield.
Let’s dive into each match and find a couple plays to sweat.
Saturday, February 10, 2024
Manchester City (-450) v. Everton (+1050) | Draw: +600
With their sights now firmly set on a record 4th consecutive league title, City welcomes Everton to the Etihad. The Citizens have won five straight in league play and nine in a row across all competitions. While the back end has conceded more goals than Pep would prefer, the offense has been constant during this stretch as they have scored 27 in those last nine. We could go on and on saluting City, but you get the picture. Everton have dropped inside the Relegation Zone due to their recent run of poor form (winless in last six). Jordan Pickford and the Toffees remain stingy on defense, but their offense has abandoned them of late as they have been held scoreless in their last two on the road. The return of Doucoure and Onana will certainly help Sean Dyche’s side as they begin a stretch that will see them face Top 8 clubs in five of their next six. As is so often the case, it is difficult to find realistic value in a Manchester City match. City could certainly win by three, but their back end has been a tad leaky and so let’s play OVER 3.5 Total Goals (+105) for the match. For our second play, lets ride with Erling Haaland to get back in the scoring column. Let’s bet him to score first (+240). Could also see a case for him scoring twice (+280) should he score first.
Fulham (+130) v. Bournemouth (+190) | Draw: +250
An interesting matchup at Craven Cottage as neither Fulham nor Bournemouth have won a single match to date in 2024. As a result, fears of relegation have crept into the conversations for each. Fulham is quite stingy at home (12GA in 11GP) but have struggled mightily on offense. Their two goals last time out equaled the output of their previous six PL matches. The Cherries are 0-2-2 in their last four. They have actually scored more away than at home but have also conceded more away from Vitality Stadium. Making matters worse is the absence of Philip Billing (suspension) for Bournemouth. That is the difference for me especially considering Fulham have earned 19 of their 26 points in front of the home crowd this season. Fulham ML (+130) and to spend just enough time in Bournemouth’s end to earn OVER 5.5 Corners (-135).
Liverpool (-600) v. Burnley (+1400) | Draw: +700
Anfield is the site for what looks to be a mismatch of rather large proportions. Still smarting from the smack they took from Arsenal last weekend, no question Jurgen Klopp’s squad will look to exact revenge on a Burnley squad who have scored in four straight on the road but have mustered just 11 goals away from Turf Moor on the campaign. Let’s not overthink this one. Liverpool -2 (+115) and because theyaverage nearly eight corners per contest at Anfield, lets sweat OVER 11.5 Total Corners (+125) between the two sides hoping that Klopp’s men keep the pedal down on the Clarets.
Luton Town (-135) v. Sheffield Utd (+350) | Draw: +275
What a turnaround for the Hatters! Since finding their footing back in the Top Flight, Luton have been a fun watch and a productive club having gone without a loss in their last six (3-3-0). A big key has been pushing the play offensively which has resulted in fifteen goals over those last six. In fact, they have scored four in each of their last two outings. A victory at Kenilworth Road could find the Hatters in 15th by the end of the weekend. While confidence is at a season-high for Luton, Sheffield is sputtering at best. The Blades have yet to win away from home (0-2-9). They have conceded 15 goals in their last 5 matches overall and they seem to especially struggle in the 2H as they have surrendered the last goal in seven straight matches. Lets ride with the Hatters and taken them to win -1 (+190) and OVER 6.5 Corners (-125).
Tottenham (-120) v. Brighton (+270) | Draw: +310
Spurs’ fans welcome their captain back into the lineup as Heung-min Son returns from the AFCON Cup. He returns to a Lilywhites’ squad who have won four straight at home. A bit more offense hits the pitch for Brighton as well as Kaoru Mitoma returns as well from AFCON competition. While Spurs have continued to score thanks in large part to Richarlison (will be interesting to see if his run of good form continues with Son back in the house), its been a bit leaner for Brighton especially away from AMEX Community Stadium. Winless in their last five away matches, the Eagles are without a goal in their last two and have but one goal in their last four road games. Brighton defeated Spurs in December but they have never won two straight against them. Let’s take Spurs to protect home turf (-130) but lets expect plenty of play in each end and as a result, lets sprinkle a little on OVER 10.5 Total Corners (-105).
Wolverhampton (+115) v. Brentford (+220) | Draw: +260
The fans at Molineux will be raucous as Wolves have lost just once in their last ten outings across all competitions. They have a spot in Europe within sight. This is the 4th meeting of the season (all within the last six weeks) between these clubs with Wolves having won two of the three to date. Ivan Toney’s return has sparked the Bees’ offense, but the club have lost eight of their last nine. A primary issue has been breakdowns in their own end especially in the 2H. With Hwang Hee-chan back in the lineup for Gary O’Neil, expect offense from Wolves. Wolverhampton ML (+110) makes sense as does Wolverhampton 2H ML (+135) as Brentford have been outscored in five of their last six in the second stanza while Wolves have not been outscored in the 2H at Molineux in Top Flight competitions since September.
Nottingham Forest (+230) v. Newcastle Utd (+110) | Draw: +260
The Magpies will be seeking to avenge a 3-1 Boxing Day loss to the Tricky Trees. There is reason for optimism for Newcastle as they are unbeaten in their last seven at City Ground while Forest have lost five of their last six at home. This is a series that has seen 3+ goals scored in seven of the last eight meetings between the two clubs. In addition, each side has been involved in high-scoring games consistently of late with Forest having seen three or more scored in five of their last six and the Magpies having seen the net dented three or more times in each of their last five contests. It correlates recent form but will be a sweat. Lets play BTTS 1H (+275) and OVER 3.5 Total Goals scored (+160).
Sunday, February 11, 2024
West Ham (+450) v. Arsenal (-175) | Draw: +320
The Gunners gained a measure of revenge against Liverpool last weekend. They’ll look to do the same at London Stadium against a West Ham side that blanked them 2-0 at the Emirates in late December. This is a match that features stingy back ends. West Ham have conceded but 11 goals in their 11 home matches while Arsenal have allowed just 11 goals themselves away from home. Arsenal corners is a market that cashes with some consistency so lets play Arsenal OVER 6.5 Corners (-110). Arsenal have scored at least 2 goals in the 2H in each of their last 3 contests. It will be a sweat against a West Ham side that have conceded 2H goals at home in just two of their last nine but lets count on Bukayo Saka and co. to net OVER 1.5 2H goals (+180).
Aston Villa (+115) v. Manchester Utd (+210) | Draw: +275
Seems like ages since Sir Alex Ferguson spoke so highly of Villa earlier this season. The start of 2024 has been that bad for the Villains as they have but one win in their last five across all comps including two consecutive 3-1 losses at home. To the contrary, Manchester United fans have fallen back in love with their side as the Red Devils are undefeated in 2024 (4-1-0). The emergence of Garnacho and Hojlund have led the offense to 11 goals in their last three matches. Each of these clubs have struggled in their own end of late especially in the 2H. Lets take BTTS 2H (+155) and OVER 10.5 Total Corners (-135). A fun squad ride is Rasmus Hojlund to Score Anytime (+240). It took Hojlund a beat to hit the back of the net to begin his career but if he scores Sunday it will mark his 5th straight game with at least one marker (would be the youngest in Man Utd history to do so).
Monday, February 12, 2024
Crystal Palace (+310) v. Chelsea (-115) | Draw: +260
In their four contests since their loss to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, the Seagulls have struggled to keep the ball out of their net conceding 12 goals. Somehow, they have managed to take six points during that stretch (2-0-2). Chelsea’s inconsistency keeps them mired in the middle of the Table. Sure, they dominated Villa earlier this week at Villa Park but they have but a single victory in their last six games away from home. The back end for the Blues is too often breaking down while outside of Cole Palmer, few Blues seem capable of finishing on the offensive end. OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-130) appears likely but lets sweat the 2H and play OVER 1.5 Total Goals (+100) as well.
Enjoy Matchweek 24 and a few sweats along the way.