With Khris Middleton out of the lineup for tonight’s affair against the Nuggets, added playmaking responsibility will be placed on Damian Lillard. We break down his assist prop in our NBA betting picks below.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will host Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets at Fiserv Forum on Monday, as two of the favorites for the NBA MVP battle it out, and we have you covered with our best bet from this matchup using the latest NBA odds.
The Doc Rivers Era is off to a rough start for the Milwaukee Bucks, as they’re now just 2-5 in their first seven games under Rivers. It won’t get any easier as the defending NBA champs are in town on Monday night in a matchup that should be appointment viewing for any NBA fan.
Ironically, Doc’s first game as Milwaukee’s head coach came in Denver two weeks ago, so maybe another game against the champs will help the Bucks get back on track.
Find out who I’m targeting in my free NBA picks for Nuggets vs. Bucks on Monday, February 12.
Nuggets vs Bucks odds
Nuggets vs Bucks predictions
When the Milwaukee Bucks host the Denver Nuggets at Fiserv Forum on Monday, they’ll be without Khris Middleton. And on top of being a tremendous shooter, Middleton creates a ton of offense for others as well.
Antetokounmpo averages 12.6 potential assists per game on the season, and Lillard is averaging 10.9. Those numbers are up to 14.7 and 12.0 per game, respectively.
With Middleton’s replacement Jae Crowder making an impact more as a shooter and less as a playmaker, my attention immediately turned to the assist props of Dame and Giannis.
I actually like the price on both players, but I lean towards Lillard because of this specific matchup with the Nuggets.
Denver will attempt to guard him with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but the Bucks should be able to create switches where Dame can attack Jamal Murray. This will lead to him getting into the lane and having opportunities to dump off to his frontcourt players or find his 3-point shooters on the perimeter for potential assists.
I’d much prefer to have my potential assists going from Lillard to Antetokounmpo, who should be able to finish at the rim against Nikola Jokic.
By attacking Lillard, we should get the potential assists to the Bucks shooters such as Crowder and Malik Beasley, but the Bucks will also be able to finish around the rim against the Nuggets, so the passes from Lillard to Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, and Antetokounmpo become of higher value.
Lillard is projected to drop 7.6 dimes against the Nuggets on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 6.5 assists at -168. However, Caesars is trading it at -119, giving us a positive expected value of 15%.
My best bet: Damian Lillard Over 6.5 assists (-119 at Caesars)
Nuggets vs Bucks same-game parlay
Crowder is someone who will rely on Dame to create offense for him. When the Nuggets’ defense sends help, it should come from Crowder more than Beasley, and with Crowder trading with a total of 1.5 vs. the 2.5 for Beasley, I like pairing this addition to the SGP.
I also highlighted how I like Lillard’s assist prop because I think the Bucks’ frontcourt will be able to finish around the rim against Jokic. Antetokounmpo has a clear advantage here, but with Antetokounmpo trading at 31.5 and Lopez at 12.5, I’m rolling with Lopez.
We should see elevated minutes for Lopez, as the Bucks will need his defense on Jokic at the other end of the floor.
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Nuggets vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Nuggets opened as a 2-point favorite on FanDuel and are now trading as a 1.5-point favorite over the Bucks.
We did see this line move towards the Bucks as it dropped down to a pick’em, but it was then immediately bet back up to Nuggets -1.5. Make sure to shop around before hitting the button on a side for this game, as we’re seeing anywhere from pick’em to Nuggets -1.5 out there in the market.
The total opened at 234 at DraftKings and has dropped four points to 230. We haven’t seen too much resistance on this number moving towards the Under. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see this dip down to 229, but it looks like it should settle in the 229-230 range.
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Nuggets vs Bucks betting trend to know
The Bucks have gone Over the total in 47 of their last 79 games (+11.80 units / 14% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Bucks.
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Nuggets vs Bucks game info
|Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
|Monday, February 12, 2024
|8:00 p.m. ET
|Bally Sports Wisconsin, Altitude
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